Hezbollah sacrifices popularity for survival

 

Hezbollah sacrifices popularity for survival

In Syria, the Party of God is struggling for an un-divine victory

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/hezbollah-sacrifices-popularity-for-survival

 

 

A dozen Hezbollah fighters were killed and over 20 injured in an ambush

Monday in Sayyida Zainab outside Damascus, Al-Arabiya reported Tuesday. The

station cited sources as saying that a number of the wounded were

transferred to the Rasul al-Azam Hospital in southern Beirut's Dahiyeh

suburb. Al-Arabiya's report added that when Hezbollah official Sheikh

Mohammad Yazbeck was offering condolences to a family of one of the

deceased, the dead fighter's mother asked him, "You told us your battle is

with Israel. Why did you send our children to die in Syria?"

 

 

 

That same night, a bomb was discovered in Beirut's Hay al-Sellom, a

predominantly Shiite neighborhood, with a message from Jabhat al-Nusra

directed at the Shiite group Hezbollah. A Hezbollah explosives expert

diffused the bomb and moved it to an unknown destination.

 

 

 

It is hard to believe that Jabhat al-Nusra would sign the bomb if they

wanted to hurt Hezbollah, even if it is only a matter of time before the

Front starts targeting Shiite areas in Lebanon. But for Hezbollah, the

timing couldn't be better. Raising fears of Jabhat al-Nusra within the

Shiite community is the only way for the Party of God to quell the

increasing fears resulting from military involvement of the Party in Syria.

It also helps in lobbying more fighters to join Hezbollah in Syria to defend

Shiite interests.

 

 

 

For Hezbollah, it is now a matter of survival. They are aware of their

declining popularity. A number of Hezbollah fighters have refused to go to

Syria and some have actually defected. More Shiites are converting to Sunni

Islam in order to pursue a normal life outside Lebanon. Getting a working

visa for Gulf countries is becoming impossible if you're a Lebanese Shiite,

so the sectarian identity that Hezbollah highlighted in their rhetoric for

the past two decades is now being sacrificed by many young Shiites for the

sake of financial security. Life seems to beat all ideologies and

identities.

 

 

 

But for Hezbollah, this is not an issue that would change or stop their

involvement in Syria. The party is an Iranian creation and will certainly

follow Iran's orders everywhere. And if Iran decides that Syria is the

battleground now, then Hezbollah will do whatever it takes to win there,

even if it costs them their popular Shiite base.

 

 

 

For Iran, this is a matter of survival, not power. The region is changing

and the old games are no longer working. The plan of being the main player

in the region is today jeopardized by the sudden rise of Islamists and

sectarian politics. The nuclear program is not enough and Syria is too

significant for Iran to lose. Therefore, Iran had to take charge and is now

calling the shots in Syria. 

 

 

 

Reports coming from Syria on Iran's involvement indicate that Bashar

al-Assad is no longer in charge and that Iran is the real decision-maker,

mainly on strategic and military issues. Iran now seeks to turn the Syrian

revolution into a long-lasting sectarian war in order to protect its

strategic interests in the region.

 

Iran has not been sending Lebanese and Iraqi Shiite fighters to Syria in

order to protect the regime or the president; they know Assad is gone and

all they need now is to make sure they don't lose Syria after losing Assad.

 

 

 

Iran knows very well that the US will not get militarily involved in Syria

or in the Middle East in general. They know that the fight is now with

extreme Islamists supported by the Gulf countries and that the sectarian

fight is now spreading to the whole region, but that's not the problem. On

the contrary, Iran's involvement in Syria was a decision that took all these

consequences into consideration.

 

 

 

Today, Iran and Hezbollah understand these regional challenges and they are

changing their strategies to take advantage of them; that is, to exert more

control in the region through sectarian clashes instead of diplomacy.

 

 

 

Therefore, it is not important if Hezbollah is losing popularity at home

because of its military involvement in Syria; in fact, Hezbollah has been

transformed from a resistance movement and political party to a military

Shiite militia fighting Sunnis in Syria. It doesn't matter that all the

Shiites in the region will have to pay the price for that. Hezbollah has

sacrificed popularity for survival.

 

 

 

Hezbollah is fighting under the Abu El Fadl Al Abbas brigade in Damascus,

and it has also spread from Qusayr in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley to some areas

in Homs, which has become a very significant and strategic area for Iran

because it links Lebanon - and Damascus - to the Alawite coast. Homs could

seriously alter the balance of power.

 

 

 

However, the Iranian investment in Syria is not about an Alawite state to

protect Assad and the Alawites. It is more about an Iranian presence in

Syria to protect Iran in the region. Syrian opposition figures who preferred

to stay anonymous told NOW that the operation that targeted Assad's inner

circle, or what was known as the "Crisis Cell" in Damascus on July 18, 2012,

killing three high-rank officers, was actually planned and executed by

Iran's revolutionary guards, in an attempt to get rid of the Syrian decision

makers and gain more control over military and security decision.

 

 

 

The plan is to take over Syria, not protect the regime. However, with the

increasing military gains of Islamists groups and the radicalization of the

rebels, Iran and Hezbollah's plan hasn't been successful as they envisioned.

The city of Homs hasn't fallen into Iran's hands. There is no divine victory

here.

 

 

 

The problem is that the longer the fight goes on, the more sectarian it will

become. Hezbollah will find itself fighting in a territory that is gradually

changing to a Sunni Islamic space. This will not spare Lebanon, as a

sectarian war over the Umma will only mean that the Shiites in the whole

region will become victims of another divine war, this time a Sunni one.

 

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