Iranian Strategy in Syria
http://understandingwar.org/report/iranian-strategy-syria
by Will Fulton, Joseph Holliday, and Sam Wyer
Executive Summary
The Islamic Republic of Iran has conducted an extensive, expensive, and
integrated effort to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as long as
possible while setting conditions to retain its ability to use Syrian
territory and assets to pursue its regional interests should Assad fall.
The Iranian security and intelligence services are advising and assisting
the Syrian military in order to preserve Bashar al-Assad's hold on power.
These efforts have evolved into an expeditionary training mission using
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces, Quds Force,
intelligence services, and law enforcement forces. The deployment of IRGC
Ground Forces to conflict abroad is a notable expansion of Iran's
willingness and ability to project military force beyond its borders.
Iran has been providing essential military supplies to Assad, primarily by
air. Opposition gains in Syria have interdicted many ground resupply routes
between Baghdad and Damascus, and the relative paucity of Iranian
port-visits in Syria suggests that Iran's sea-lanes to Syria are more
symbolic than practical. The air line of communication between Iran and
Syria is thus a key vulnerability for Iranian strategy in Syria. Iran would
not be able to maintain its current level of support to Assad if this air
route were interdicted through a no-fly zone or rebel capture of Syrian
airfields.
Iran is also assisting pro-government shabiha militias, partly to hedge
against Assad's fall or the contraction of the regime into Damascus and a
coastal Alawite enclave. These militias will become even more dependent on
Tehran in such a scenario, allowing Iran to maintain some ability to operate
in and project force from Syria.
Lebanese Hezbollah began to take on a more direct combat role in Syria as
the Assad regime began losing control over Syrian territory in 2012.
Hezbollah has supported Assad with a robust, well-trained force whose
involvement in the conflict aligns with Iranian strategic interests as
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged on April 30 in Tehran.
Hezbollah's commitment is not without limitations, however, because
Nasrallah must carefully calibrate his support to Assad with his domestic
responsibilities in order to avoid alienating his core constituency in
Lebanon.
Iraqi Shi'a militants are also fighting in Syria in support of Assad. Their
presence became overt in 2012 with the formation of the Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas
Brigade, a pro-government militia that is a conglomerate of Syrian and
foreign Shi'a fighters, including members of Lebanese Hezbollah and
Iraq-based Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah. Like other paramilitary
forces operating in Syria, these militants escalated their involvement as
the conflict descended into civil war. The open participation of Iraqi Shi'a
militants in Syria is an alarming indicator of the expansion of sectarian
conflict throughout the region.
The Syrian conflict has already constrained Iran's influence in the Levant,
and the fall of the Assad regime would further reduce Tehran's ability to
project power. Iran's hedging strategy aims to ensure, however, that it can
continue to pursue its vital interests if and when the regime collapses,
using parts of Syria as a base as long as the Syrian opposition fails to
establish full control over all of Syrian territory.
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