Thousands of Hezbollah fighters in Syria protecting Assad regime's escape route
Units of the Lebanese militia and Iran's Revolutionary Guard are also guarding strategic sites used to store WMD and missiles.
By Amos Harel | May.09, 2013 | 1:50 AM
The number of fighters Hezbollah has sent to the aid of Syrian President Bashar Assad in the civil war in his country is believed have reached a few thousand.
The fighters are taking an active part in the most important battle for the survival of the Syrian dictator − securing the narrow corridor that still links Damascus in the south to the big cities of Hama, Homs and Aleppo (where the regime still maintains partial control), and especially to the Alawite enclave in northwestern Syria.
Particularly harsh fighting has taken place recently around the town of al-Qusayr, near Homs in central Syria, as rebels attempt to cut off Damascus from the regions the regime controls in the north.
Various reports have come out in Lebanon on Hezbollah fighter casualties during battles against the rebels. Sunni activists opposed to Hezbollah say 500 fighters have been injured and, according to media close to Hezbollah, 180 have been killed. Hezbollah's focus on the civil war in Syria has led to sharp criticism of the organization in Lebanon.
In addition to protecting the corridor critical to Assad, Hezbollah units are also guarding strategic sites in which weapons of mass destruction are stored, along with the Syrian army's missiles. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are also apparently involved in this task.
Risk of retaliation
Sources in Israel say the risk has fallen now of a direct response by Syria following claims by Assad's regime that Israel was responsible for two aerial attacks in its territory late last week. Israel did not publicly declare responsibility for the two attacks. Assad initially ignored the first attack last Thursday night, as he commonly did after actions attributed to Israel before the civil war broke out. He apparently did so thinking that a response would ratchet up tensions with Israel, while restraint would take the issue off the public agenda.
But on Sunday, after the second attack, Syria publicly accused Israel of the bombardments. It apparently did so for two reasons: First, leaks from the American administration revealed Israeli responsibility for the attacks despite Jerusalem's policy of keeping mum. And second, the bases and weapons stores that were bombarded for the second time were very close to Damascus (the site is just three kilometers from the presidential palace).
The regime had difficulty denying these bombardments, with the sound of the explosions clearly heard in the capital and clouds of smoke appearing in photographs Syrian civilians took with their cellphones.
As Western intelligence services reported, the target of both bombardments was a large shipment of surface-to-surface Iranian medium-range Fateh-110 missiles.
The missiles had been brought to Damascus about a week before and the Iranians had intended to send them to Hezbollah in Lebanon soon. These missiles, with their range of 250 kilometers and great precision, cross Israel's red line and require immediate destruction.
According to security sources, the Iranian missiles are much more precise than their Syrian-made counterpart, the M-600 now in the hands of Hezbollah.
For example, if they were aimed from Lebanon at the Hadera electric power station, the release of a volley of such missiles would almost certainly result in a direct hit.
This would have been the most precise weaponry Hezbollah would have, no less precise than the drones outfitted with explosives and carrying a relatively heavy warhead of 450 kilograms, which the organization already has.
Sources in Israel say they doubt Assad's statement Monday that he would respond to what he said were Israel's attacks by "renewing resistance on the border of the Golan Heights."
Palestinian factions
The Syrian president spoke specifically about actions by Palestinian groups, but most of the Palestinian factions have already cut ties with the regime and are expressing a clear position in favor of the Sunni opposition. The main Palestinian group still standing by the regime, Ahmed Jibril's group, has lost most of its operational capabilities in recent decades. But the security establishment is preparing for the possibility of Syrian revenge action on the Golan or abroad, which could come at a later time.
Assad also claimed that Israel has intervened on the side of the rebels because his forces have scored some successes recently. Sources in Israel deny that Israel wants to take sides in the civil war in Syria, but the impression is that the regime is very far from victory and that the adversaries are trapped in a kind of paralyzing tie that does not permit a win by either side.
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