Hints of a Possible Russia-U.S. Truce

 

 

Hints of a Possible Russia-U.S. Truce August 2, 2012 | 0558 GMT Russia has made some unusual moves over the past several days. As we have noted previously, Moscow has been shifting its position on Syria. The steady decline of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime has left Moscow with little choice but to distance itself from the al Assads and look for ways to make itself relevant in the political transition. One way Russia has been doing this -- via its intelligence networks in Syria and relationships with the regime -- is by reassuring the West and Israel that Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal is secure. Russia hopes that its links to the regime, even without the al Assads in the picture, will allow Moscow to retain a foothold in the Levant. On Wednesday, the chief of Russia's Federal Anti-Monopoly Service, Igor Artemyev, told reporters in Moscow that Russia is taking legal action to block Iranian-controlled companies from acquiring the Astrakhan port on the Caspian Sea. Artemyev described Iranian-Russian relations as "difficult" and said that Iran's attempts to gain a stake in the port were allowing the Islamic republic to violate U.N. sanctions. In the name of upholding the sanctions, Artemyev said that Russia would annul the Iranian-Russian business deal on the port. This was a jarring statement considering Russia is one of the biggest facilitators of Iran's sanctions-busting activities. This is not what Iran wants to hear right now. Tehran is suffering a significant setback in Syria (and by extension Lebanon), and is increasingly concerned about its position in Iraq. Meanwhile, a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf is making it a lot more difficult for Iran to risk aggressive moves in the Strait of Hormuz. The more vulnerable Iran feels, the more it will look for backing from a foreign sponsor such as Russia. This may explain why Iran on Wednesday said it was dropping a $4 billion lawsuit against Russian state-run arms corporation Rosoboronexport in exchange for the delivery of S-300 air defense systems. Russia is usually happy to play this role for Iran. It is in Russia's strategic interest to see the United States bogged down in the Middle East so that Moscow can act in the former Soviet periphery without interference from the global superpower. Over the past decade, Russia has used Syria and Iran to generate storms in the region to keep Washington preoccupied. With Syria in flux and Iran on the defensive, Russia can still use Iran to meddle with U.S. efforts. But right now, Russia's focus is elsewhere. Moscow has recently had to deal with an unsteady domestic political scene. While the Kremlin must contend with its usual share of internal battles, Russia has also seen the steady rise of opposition groups that no longer see Putin's authority as a saving grace for the country. These groups were highly active in the mass protests that followed parliamentary elections in December 2011 and presidential elections in March. Putin and his ruling elite still have plenty of ways to contain these opposition groups, but the groups are becoming more organized. Come October, the opposition will have the opportunity to challenge the Kremlin in regional and municipal elections. This will mark the first time since 2003 that governors will come to power via direct election. Moscow has traditionally relied on regional leaders across Russia's vast landscape to consolidate the Kremlin's control over the country. Should opposition leaders rise to these positions, they could diminish Putin's authority. Support for the Kremlin weakened in spring municipal elections, underlining the importance of regional elections and the Kremlin's need for a strong showing in October.   If the Kremlin is to manage this domestic situation, Moscow needs to prevent the United States from providing meaningful support to Russian opposition movements. Washington hasn't been shy about showing the outcome it desires for these elections, with both Ambassador Michael McFaul and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton taking time to meet with opposition leaders. Meanwhile, Russia continues to accuse the United States of funding opposition groups through non-governmental organizations. In July, the Russian government passed several stringent NGO and Internet laws to try to curb foreign support in the country. Russia needs to keep U.S. influence out of this election -- whether that influence takes the form of political backing, financial support, or simply guidance to opposition groups on how to organize their campaigns. At the same time, the United States needs Russia not to interfere in the Middle East. Washington's strategy to roll back Iranian influence by cracking Syria, ratcheting up sanctions and building up its military presence in the Persian Gulf is going according to plan; Iran feels the pressure and is struggling to respond. The last thing the United States needs is for Russia to boost Tehran's confidence by delivering something like an S-300 air defense system. Given the strange movements we've seen out of Russia recently, we believe a truce could be in the making between Washington and Moscow. This would after all not be the first such truce. In 2010, then-Russian President Dmitri Medvedev struck a deal with the United States to help Russia with its massive privatization and modernization programs in exchange for Russia's approval of U.N. sanctions against Iran. Medvedev visited the United States to strike the economic deals and met with U.S. President Barack Obama just days before Russia flipped its position on Iran sanctions (while leaving plenty of room to continue covertly aiding Iran in its sanctions-busting activities). As the 2010 episode demonstrated, such truces don't tend to endure. Fundamental issues between the United States and Russia remain unresolved, and both will keep their options open. Over the next three months, however, we could see Russia and the United States setting aside these disagreements in order to take care of their own business without worrying about interference from each other. For Tehran, this is very worrying news indeed.

__._,_.___