Sunday, September 16, 2012

Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

 

Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of...

Click here: Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

·         Mitt Romney

·         September 10, 2012

·         By: Dean Chambers

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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney walks through the garage area during a rain delay before the start of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway on September 8, 2012.

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Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

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·         Mitt Romney

·         Elections 2012

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The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.

The sampling used by Gallup differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.

The Gallup tracking poll has Democrats favoring Obama by a 90 percent to seven percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 91 percent to six percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 43 percent to 42 percent edge.

If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of Republicans, Democrats and independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 49 percent to 44 percent margin over President Obama. That is exactly the opposite of what was officially reported earlier today by Gallup.

The significance of this is, somewhere along the way the weighting and sampling used by Gallup appears to have changed. The polling output resulting from this change demonstrates an apparent change that may not have happened at all, resulting in the showing of a Barack Obama post-convention “bounce” much larger than what might have actually occurred.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Obama at 50 percent to Romney at 45 percent. While Rasmussen releases the internals only to paid Platinum members, calculations from this data would require that either Obama has taken a lead of six to 10 points among independents or that this survey over-samples Democrats to produce a five point edge for Obama. It would be highly unlikely for a Rasmussen survey to match the Gallup poll that is skewed, at the same time, and not be somewhat skewed itself.

The Gallup poll is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Earlier this week, the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.

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