Thursday, March 28, 2013

Why is Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia's Leader Threatening the Government?

 

Why is Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia's Leader Threatening the Government?

http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/03/28/why-is-ansar-al-sharia-tunisias-leader-threatening-the-government/

 

 

March 28, 2013 by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

 

Yesterday, Ansar al-Sharia Tunisia's fugitive leader Abu Iyad al-Tunisi

(Saif-Allah Benahssine) issued a bellicose statement threatening the

overthrow of Tunisia's government if it interfered with AST. Abu Iyad

specifically threatened to cast the Tunisian government into the "dustbin of

history." (For a more complete translation of Abu Iyad's statement than

appears in press reporting, see this post at Long War Journal.) Abu Iyad's

statement is noteworthy, and perhaps surprising, because it represents the

first time he has made a threat against Tunisia's government: he had

previously affirmed, on multiple occasions, that "Tunisia is a land not of

jihad, but of preaching (dawa)." In this sense, the statement represents a

deviation from the strategy AST has established toward the use of violence,

albeit perhaps a smaller deviation than it appears at first glance.

 

AST's strategy toward use of violence has had a few distinct

characteristics. AST has publicly condemned the use of violence, as when Abu

Iyad told Al Jazeera in July 2011 that "we have the gentlest attitude"

toward the Tunisian people, "and will never be dragged into harming them in

any way." But on the other hand, AST has been purposefully ambiguous about

its connection to actual acts of violence - it seems to have been involved

in several such acts, but with plausible deniability built in. Essentially,

AST's strategy was designed to intimidate its domestic opponents through the

use of force, and consistently expand the boundaries of what might be

considered "acceptable violence" (in other words, acts of violence that

won't trigger a state crackdown). At the same time, AST maintained its

ability to operate openly, and in that way build its base and power:

 

    AST's official position has been that Tunisia is a land of dawa, and not

of jihad.

    AST has undertaken violence against civilians, while maintaining

ambiguity about whether the group was actually carrying out such attacks. I

recently wrote an article for Foreign Policy outlining the rise in hardline

salafi vigilante violence in Tunisia: though AST hasn't claimed any of those

acts, the degree of organization involved in several of them suggests AST

involvement.

    AST occasionally pushes the boundaries of acceptable violence against

foreign targets of jihad. Most prominently, AST was fairly clearly behind

the September 2012 assault on the U.S. embassy in Tunis, something that one

can discern even from its social media activity.

    AST consistently undertakes dawa to grow its organization, including

through the provision of social services.

    Though the evidence on this point is somewhat ambiguous, AST seems to be

stockpiling weapons for use at some point in the future. This is consistent

with the advice of jihadist ideologues and strategists such as Hamzah bin

Muhammad al-Bassam and Abu Sa'ad al-Amili (with whom AST enjoys a

particularly close relationship).

 

Abu Iyad's statement is a departure from this established strategy because

it threatens the Tunisian state for the first time. So what could explain

this move? Here are several possibilities, moving from what I consider the

most likely to the least likely:

 

    AST may be concerned that the anti-terror crisis cells Tunisia is

setting up, in addition to other arrests of salafis following the

assassination of Chokri Belaid, suggests that Tunisia intends to get tougher

on AST in a way that may threaten its growth. There are so many candidates

to have assassinated Belaid that it is entirely conceivable (perhaps likely)

that AST didn't carry out that killing. If so, Abu Iyad's statement may also

send a message to Ennahda warning them about pinning the killing on salafis.

If, on the other hand, AST did kill Belaid, this may be a warning to

Tunisian politicians that they too may be individually targeted. Either way,

the goal of the warning is to coerce the Tunisian government to maintain its

policies of containing AST, rather than moving toward a crackdown.

    AST may think the government will be unwilling or unable to escalate

following the threat. If so, this further pushes out the bounds of

acceptable violence within Tunisian society through a direct threat against

the state that essentially goes unanswered.

    AST may believe it has gained enough strength that it can withstand any

government response. In that way, this threat could represent another step

toward AST fully establishing itself as a parallel state structure.

    It could be an emotional error on Abu Iyad's part, especially given that

he has been living as a fugitive for months.

    Finally, AST may believe that now is the time to transition from dawa to

jihad. This option seems quite unlikely.

 

It is well worth watching how both the Tunisian state and also AST react

following this threat.

 

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