SO IT IS WRITTEN, SO LET IT BE DONE! AND THE WORLD WILL BE A MUCH BETTER PLACE IN A SHORT TIME!
Steve
----------------------------------------
The polls show ever polling organization has Romney in the lead with an average margin of 4.6%. Is this a sign that the GAME is on and We Are Winning. We cannot give up and must do everything we can to assist the Romney team. Phone Banking, Precinct walks to Nevada and sharing with everyone we know what the facts are. Even sharing with our Liberal Friends and or contacts. Let them know what the polls are saying.Respectfully, Timothy K. Moreland, President Emeritus, Co-Founder, Marin Conservative Forum.
UnSkewed Polling Data
Thursday, October 18, 2012 12:14:11 PMPoll
Date
Sample
MoE
Skew
Obama(D)
Romney(R)
Spread
UnSkewed Avg.
9/24 - 10/14
--
--
+2.8 D
45.0
49.6
Romney +4.6
10/11 - 10/14
1000 LV
3.1
+3 D
46.0
51.0
Romney +5
10/10 - 10/13
923 LV
3.5
+9 D
47.0
51.0
Romney +4
10/8 - 10/10
1360 LV
2.7
+3 D
45.0
48.0
Romney +3
10/5 - 10/7
800 LV
3.5
+3 D
43.0
46.0
Romney +3
10/7 - 10/9
1109 LV
3.0
+1 D
43.0
46.0
Romney +3
10/11 - 10/16
931 LV
3.5
+8 D
45.0
52.0
Romney +7
10/4 - 10/7
1112 LV
3.4
+0 D
45.0
49.0
Romney +4
10/15 - 10/17
1500 LV
3.0
+3 D
46.0
51.0
Romney +5
10/10 - 10/16
2700 LV
2.0
+1 D
45.0
52.0
Romney +7
9/24 - 9/28
3662 LV
1.6
+0.0 D
45.0
50.0
Romney +5
The Definitive Projection of the race: Romney wins 52% and 342 Electoral votes (new)
Released October 16, 2012 The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 52.22 percent of the popular vote and 342 electoral votes to President Obama's 47.31 percent and 196 electoral votes. QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 129,170,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama. Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote. Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following: Colorado: 50-48 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado Connecticut: 52-45 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat Florida: 52-48 Romney Iowa: 52-47 Romney -- many don't expect this Maine: 49-47 Obama -- much closer than expected Michigan: 50-49 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry Nevada: 50-48 Romney -- this will surprise many New Hampshire: 52-47 Romney New Jersey: 50-48 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number New Mexico: 52-47 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico Ohio: 51-48 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney Oregon: 50-47 Obama -- closer than expected Pennsylvania: 50-49 Romney -- big time upset Washington: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected
QStarNews Poll methods and modeling The QStarNews Poll is all about getting it right and putting out accurate numbers on where the political races and other questions of public opinion really stand as of now. Our goal is to NOT be skewed or confirm pre-conceived results. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results. The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available. The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electorate including approximately 41.0 percent conservatives, 20.0 percent moderates and 39.0 percent liberals. Republicans are 89 percent conservative, 9 percent moderate and 2 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 3 percent are conservative, 23 percent are moderate and 74 percent are liberal. Independents include 33 percent conservatives, 49 percent moderates and 18 percent liberals. Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 34.8 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 89 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans.
__._,_.___
Report any problems, suggestions or abuse to Individual-Sovereignty-owner@yahoogroups.com
Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use • Send us Feedback
.
__,_._,___
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment