Assad outlines his strategy for survival against Sunni rebel offensive

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Assad outlines his strategy for survival against Sunni rebel offensive

The signs were seen several months ago, but today it is clear that President Assad has reversed many if not most of the rebel gains in northern and central Syria. Bashar Assad ·  Assumed Office: July 17, 2000 ·  Age: 47

NICOSIA — For the first time, President Bashar Assad has outlined his strategy in the war against Sunni rebels in Syria. And a report revealed that Turkey has been behind a rebel offensive against Aleppo.

Assad disclosed his survival strategy amid the two-year revolt in a meeting with parliamentarians from Turkey's main opposition party. In a meeting with the Republican People's Party on March 7, the Syrian president acknowledged that his military was pursuing a selective campaign against the Sunni rebels, backed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

"We can't control all parts of Syria," Assad said. "We are focused on big cities."

The signs were seen several months ago, but today it is clear that President Assad has reversed many if not most of the rebel gains in northern and central Syria. Assad's forces have been trained and equipped by Iran and Russia, while the rebels are receiving less than 10 percent of their ammunition requirements from Gulf Arab suppliers.

In a report published by the Turkish party on March 10, Assad said the Syrian military and security forces have tolerated rebel operations outside major cities. The Syrian president said many of these operations were supported by Ankara.

"There are terrorist attacks in the countryside," Assad said.

This marked the first time that Assad openly discussed his strategy toward the rebels. Western diplomats said the president's remarks reflected a new outlook believed formulated in late 2012 in consultation with Iran and Russia.

"Until at least the fall of 2012, Assad's military and security forces were running after its tail, with no real direction," a diplomat who follows the revolt said. "For at least the last six months, there has been a strategy that envisions a gradual takeover of Syria from the rebels."

Assad's remarks came as the Syrian military reversed many rebel gains. The diplomats said the Assad campaign sought to exploit the regime's air superiority as well as coordinated ground attacks throughout central Syria.

For its part, Turkey has linked Syrian intelligence to a car bombing along their mutual border in February 2013 in which 14 people were killed. Turkish Interior Minister Muammer Guler said authorities arrested two people believed to work for Syrian intelligence.

"We have determined that they were in contact with the Syrian intelligence and army," Guler said on March 11. "But of course, this will come to light during the trial."

Meanwhile a report said Turkey supported an unsuccessful Sunni rebel campaign to capture Syria's largest city.

The Al Quds Center for Political Studies asserted that Turkey provided significant support for the Sunni rebel drive against the regime of President Bashar Assad. In a report, Al Quds said Ankara's aid failed to drive out the Syrian Army and other regime forces from Aleppo.

"The armed Syrian opposition, backed by a torrent of modern weapons and ammunition, and by large-scale Turkish logistical support, mobilized some 10,000 fighters in an attempt to decide the battle of Aleppo and transform the city into the capital of its 'provisional government,'" the report, titled "Battle of Aleppo," said.

Center director Oraib Al Rantawi, who authored the report, said the Turkish aid to the rebels marked an international effort to oust Assad. Al Rantawi, regarded as close to the Jordanian royal family, said Arab and Western states sought to force Assad to negotiate a transfer of power.

A Syrian woman and her son flee the violence in the Sheikh Said district of the northern city of Aleppo.   AFP/Aamir Qureshi

The report said the Turkish-led effort for the rebel seizure of Aleppo did not succeed. Al Rantawi said rebel fighters, particularly those from the Al Qaida-aligned Nusra Front for the Defense of the Levant, sustained heavy casualties and were driven from strongholds and major roads in northern Syria. Al Nusra was also said to have lost military bases captured from the regime over the last few months.

Dated March 6, the report asserted that Assad has now directed a campaign against the rebel presence around Homs. Homs has been regarded as a strategic hub and key to any rebel attack on the Alawite-controlled Mediterranean coast.

"The regime and some of its Lebanese allies, Hizbullah, have taken a decision to prevent the fall of Homs and its environs in the Syrian opposition's hands, given its position as a communication hub," the report said. "This is because of the city and its environs' strategic status in the current war against the regime, and its role as the regime's 'Plan-B' to which it may resort if its grip of Aleppo and Damascus were to loosen."

The report did not envision any imminent breakthrough by either Assad or the rebels. But Al Rantawi said Assad has been pleased with the performance of his military, particularly around Aleppo.

Al Rantawi envisioned greater Turkish and other aid to the rebels. He said this would spark a similar effort by Assad's allies, including Iran, Lebanon and Russia.

"The opposition's Arab, Turkish, European, and American allies have decided to open the taps of financial and military backing for the opposition," the report said. "Correspondingly, the regime's Russian, Iranian, and Lebanese allies have decided to raise the level of their support and intervention in the conflict on the regime's behalf, as shown by the Russian arms deals, Iran's unconditional backing, and Hizbullah's gradually escalating involvement in the developments of the crisis on the ground."