Key signs that Al Qaeda's Islamic extremism is moving into southern Africa

 

Key signs that Al Qaeda's Islamic extremism is moving into southern Africa

 

A surge of sectarian strife and Al Qaeda-linked terrorism in Tanzania

signals that Africa's jihadist wave is expanding south. The failure of the

international community to assist Tanzania in tackling the roots of Islamic

extremism will likely allow it to grow.

 

By Jay Radzinski and Daniel Nisman / March 12, 2013 at 9:06 am EDT

Tel Aviv

 

"I pointed out to you the stars, and all you saw was the tip of my finger."

This Tanzanian proverb should resonate deeply with anyone who fears the

spread of Islamic extremism in Africa. On Tanzania's island paradise of

Zanzibar, the killing of a Catholic Priest by Muslim extremists last month

points to a series of mounting and long-ignored signals that the continent's

jihadist wave is expanding south.

 

As witnessed in Somalia and Mali, the failure of the international community

to assist Tanzania in tackling the roots of Islamic extremism will likely

allow it to grow.

 

Located in southern Africa on the Indian Ocean, this traditionally tranquil

tourism hub has been awash with sectarian strife since October 2012. It

began when a dispute between two local school children resulted in the

defilement of a Koran, sparking outrage by Tanzania's large Muslim

community. At least four churches across the country were attacked in the

aftermath in what may just prove to be a watershed moment in Tanzania's

modern history.

 

In February 2013, religious tensions in Zanzibar continued to simmer from a

dispute over butchering rights, sparking tit-for-tat attacks between

Christians and Muslims, ultimately resulting in the beheading of one priest

and the fatal shooting of another inside his own church. A self-proclaimed

local Al Qaeda branch calling itself "Muslim Renewal" took credit for the

shooting as its inaugural attack.

 

But 14 years before this latest unrest in Zanzibar, Tanzania took center

stage, after a deadly bombing attack at the US embassy in Tanzania's biggest

city, Dar es-Salaam, with all fingers pointing to Al Qaeda militants. This

event, along with the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi, brought names

like Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri into the public sphere for the

first time.

 

Then-President Clinton responded by launching cruise missiles at Al Qaeda

bases in Sudan and Afghanistan. Despite the participation of local East

Africans in the attacks, little concrete measures were taken to curb

radicalization in the region.

 

By May 2012, the global jihad network would rear its ugly head in Tanzania

once more, after a bombing attack occurred in the Kenyan capital, targeting

a prominent shopping district. While blame was placed squarely on Somalia's

Al Shabaab Islamist group, the arrest of a German national in Tanzania in

connection to the attack largely went unnoticed. The man, reportedly of

Turkish descent, had undergone training in Al Qaeda camps in Pakistan.

 

While the Tanzanian link in the global-jihad chain failed yet again to ring

alarm bells, deteriorating domestic conditions may open the floodgates for a

homegrown wave of extremism.

 

Tanzania's delicate demographic balance is divided into thirds among

Christians, Muslims, and animists. The country maintains a secular charter

with careful restrictions against religion in politics since the end of

socialist rule in the 1990s.

 

Under this system, Tanzanian Muslims have commonly accused the government of

discrimination. In 2002, the Tanzanian government instituted the Terrorism

Prevention law under pressure from the United States. The law ultimately

resembled the US Patriot Act, and served to further increase mistrust of

local Muslims toward police and the central government.

 

These deeply rooted tensions have been compounded by the impact of the

global economic recession, with communal violence against Christians just

one of the apparent outcomes.

 

With Western influence in fast retreat along with foreign aid cuts and

budget reductions from nongovernmental organizations, wealthy Arabian Gulf

donors have helped nurture an Islamist revival across the country. That's

been evident in a subtle rise in Swahili-translated Korans on bookshelves,

Islamist satellite TV channels, and increasing attendance at Friday sermons.

In Zanzibar alone, Saudi Arabia continues to invest more than $1 million per

year in Islamic universities, madrasas, and scholarships for young Zanzibari

men to study abroad in Mecca.

 

This rising tide of Islamism has drawn concern from Tanzania's Christian

leaders. In recent months, they have become increasingly vocal in accusing

Saudi Arabia and Sudan of sending Islamic preachers to the country with the

aim of spreading sharia law from the predominantly-Muslim Zanzibar islands

into mixed areas in mainland Tanzania.

 

Back on Zanzibar, leaflets were distributed in Christian communities in

early March that called for retaliation for the recent priest killings,

threatening to further exacerbate sectarian violence on the impoverished

island. Christian preachers elsewhere in the country have since complained

of receiving ominous text messages from the Muslim Renewal group that

stated: "We will burn homes and churches. We have not finished: at Easter,

be prepared for disaster."

 

In an all-too-common trend, it could only be a matter of time before Al

Qaeda's veteran terrorists elsewhere in the world take note of Tanzania's

revitalized extremist potential. The combination of economic strife and

religious conflict provides fertile ground for these elements to sow their

seeds of instability.

 

It remains the responsibility of stability-seeking nations to uproot those

elements before it's too late. Religious fundamentalists must no longer be

the sole source of funding for Tanzania's impoverished Muslim communities.

Schools that preach extremism must be replaced with those that teach math,

science, and tolerance. The Tanzanian government should be given aid

conditional to its investments in infrastructure, while its security forces

must be given guidance on community policing and other best practices in

good governance.

 

Time is running out. As the West continues to reel from its mistakes in

neglecting the developments in Mali and Somalia, Tanzania is emerging as a

backdoor for Islamic extremism -- one that should be slammed shut before

it's too late.

 

Jay Radzinski and Daniel Nisman are the Africa and Middle East division

intelligence directors at Max Security Solutions, a global geopolitical and

security risk consulting firm.

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