Troubling Times for Once Mighty Hizballah

 

Troubling Times for Once Mighty Hizballah

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3958/troubling-times-for-once-mighty-hizballah

 

by Paul Alster

Special to IPT News

March 27, 2013

 

Haifa, Israel - Hizballah's continuing alliance with embattled Syrian

President Bashar al-Assad has the notorious Shia political and military

movement navigating choppier waters than at any other time in recent memory.

 

Led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah - the Iranian-backed preacher rarely seen in

public these days for fear he might be assassinated - Hizballah had been the

unquestioned Shia force in Lebanon. But cracks have begun to appear as both

internal dissent and external pressures have been brought to bear and reveal

a vulnerability that had rarely, if ever, been seen before.

 

President Obama - angry at Hizballah's continued support of the Assad regime

- didn't mince his words in Jerusalem March 21: "Every country that values

justice should call Hizballah what it truly is - a terrorist organization."

 

That's a much more direct statement than administration officials previously

were willing to make. In 2010, then-National Security Advisor and current

CIA Director John Brennan spoke of trying "to build up the more moderate

elements" of the organization.

 

It's a fast fall from Hizballah's previous high-point of influence,

Mordechai Kedar, an Israeli scholar of Arabic specializing in Islamic

movements and ideology, told the Investigative Project on Terrorism.

"Hizballah was the most popular organisation in the Arab world after the

2006 Lebanon War [against Israel], but now their image is as bad as it could

be because Hizballah is considered as a collaborator with the most vicious

of regimes [Syria]. They have lost much of the image they gained after the

2006 war."

 

In a December report, the United Nations confirmed that Hizballah was

fighting alongside the Assad regime in Syria.

 

"From the outside point of view, they [Hizballah] are supporting Assad by

sending hundreds of combatants to Syria in order to preserve the regime,

because they know that if they are not loyal to their friend, no-one will be

their friend in the future," Kedar explained. "Secondly, they need the

Syrian regime as the bridge between Iran and Lebanon. It would be very hard

for them to function without Syrian mediation between Lebanon and Iran when

it comes to supplies, logistics, missiles and all the weapons that they

need."

 

Having been supported by both Syria and Iran for many years, Hizballah

determined that it must stand by the Syrian regime even though it appears to

be fighting a losing battle. Failure to do so could cost it financial

support from Iran, leaving Hizballah - once Assad has gone - with no

significant nation state supporting their cause.

 

But according to Kedar - who specialized in Syria during his 25 years in

Israeli military intelligence - Hizballah faces no lesser difficulties from

within Lebanon, and is gradually coming under more pressure from within its

own ranks.

 

Shia leader Mohammed Ali al-Husseini accuses Nasrallah of "dragging Lebanon

into the abyss and that the Shiites in Lebanon, and Lebanon itself, will pay

a high price for this behavior," Kedar said. "But also from inside Hizballah

there are voices today - not out loud, but behind the scenes - which claim

that gambling on the Syrian horse is gambling on the wrong horse, and

Hizballah will be associated forever with Assad's regime, especially its

last brutal stages of life. This will hurt Hizballah and could even persuade

Europe to place them on its list of terror organizations."

 

Iran's support makes Nasrallah "immune, because not only does he have their

political support, he has the money and the control over the resources of

Hizballah, and most importantly of all, the backing of Ayatollah Khamenei

[Iran's Supreme Leader]."

 

Al-Husseini is the leader of the Arabic Islamic Congress (AIC) and one of a

growing number of high-profile Lebanese Shia who believe that Hizballah is

wrong for their community and wrong for Lebanon. The U.S. has allegedly

reached out to al-Husseini as a potential partner in undermining Hizballah.

Al Husseini's reputation has suffered a number of setbacks however,

including being tried and later acquitted of being an Israeli spy, while U.S

diplomatic cables leaked by Wikileaks in December 2011 cast doubt on just

how genuine his rift with Hizballah really is.

 

"AIC headquarters are located on the Beirut airport highway, a

Hizballah-dominated area," the cable noted. "Contacts in the Beirut southern

suburbs observed that Hizballah has neither harassed nor interfered with

AIC."

 

The long-standing Amal movement (another allegedly courted by the U.S.), is

also seen as a more moderate Shia force and gained 13 seats to Hizballah's

12 in the 2009 Lebanese general election. But Amal, led by Nabih Berri, has

endured years of in-fighting while claims of nepotism and corruption have so

far negated its political effectiveness. Despite opportunities to increase

their influence amongst the Shia population those groups opposed to

Hizballah have failed so far to make any real impression in gaining ground

on the "Party of God."

 

If Hizballah's influence wanes it will be due to blindly supporting Assad in

Syria, its reduced ability to function and provide the social support to its

community that has come through its financial alliance with Syria and Iran,

and possibly because of the emergence of a new political Shia force in South

Lebanon.

 

On March 20 Israel's Ynet.com reported that "a new political movement is

gathering followers right in the Hizballah stronghold of Beirut's southern

suburb... Hizballah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, once the undisputed

stars of the Arab world, are rattled by surprise opposition from within

their own ranks."

 

The recently formed Movement for the Lebanese Citizen (MLC) is led by Imad

Kamiche, a former Hizballah "operative." Ynet.com - the online version of

Israel's highly regarded daily newspaper Yediot Ahronot - suggests MLC is

"attempting to present an alternative to the rigidly Shiite framework

represented by Hezbollah and Amal, and place the Lebanese citizen at the

forefront, regardless of ethnicity."

 

Hizballah suddenly appears keen to portray itself as tolerant of dissenting

voices. "The fact that opposition elements are still residing in Beirut's

southern suburb is a testimony to the group's tolerance," a spokesman said.

The article cited sources who added that "Hizballah actually wishes to

absorb the opposition and their criticism, even contacting them for that

purpose." MLC founder Kamiche, however, hinted that he had been given clear

"advice" to stay out of the political arena, a thinly veiled hint that

Hizballah will only tolerate his opposing voice to a certain point.

 

This is supposed to be an election year in Lebanon. Sheikh Nasrallah and the

Hizballah leadership will surely be aware that their intervention in the

Syrian Civil War could cause a backlash at the ballot box and significantly

reduce their share of the vote. Matt Levitt, director of The Washington

Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, suggested

recently that Hizballah still has to nail its colors to the Iranian mast to

the exclusion of almost all other political and military considerations.

 

"What we see now is that Hezbollah is going to do things today that are in

Iran's interest even if they expressly run counter to the interests of

Lebanon and Hezbollah's own interest there," Levitt argued. "People tend to

misunderstand the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran, which has changed

over time but is now extremely close. The U.S. intelligence community has

publicly described this as a 'strategic partnership.' But people don't fully

appreciate Hezbollah's ideological commitment to the concept of 'velayat-e

faqih,' or guardianship of the jurists, which holds that a Shiite Islamic

cleric should also serve as supreme head of government. For Hezbollah, this

means the Iranian leadership is also their leader - not for every foot

soldier, but for Hezbollah's senior leaders, absolutely."

 

Hizballah's reputation had already been seriously damaged in the eyes of

many EU states by its role in Syria, but the EU has thus far proved

reluctant to officially designate it a terrorist organization. The recent

confirmation by the Bulgarian government investigation that Hizballah was

responsible for the bombing of a bus of Israeli tourists at Burgas last year

was another blow to the Shia force's credibility and may finally persuade

the EU to act.

 

The EU's argument that such a designation might destabilize the fragile

Lebanese political status quo was left null and void on Friday evening when

the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati - which included Hizballah -

resigned, citing irreconcilable positions between the various factions over

scheduling elections. Mikati's spokesman, Fares Gemayyel, simply said, "The

prime minister cannot work in such conditions. He needs to respect the

constitution."

 

A day earlier in Cyprus came the first conviction of a Hizballah member by

an EU state as a court in Limassol found Hossam Taleb Yaacoub guilty of

"being a member of a criminal organization." Because the EU has not yet

designated Hizballah a terror organization, the original charges of "being a

member of a terrorist organisation" had to be amended to obtain a successful

conviction under current Cypriot and EU law. Yaacoub was found guilty on

five out of eight charges before the court.

 

"The United States applauds the government of Cyprus for its professional

investigation and successful conviction in court today of Hezbollah

operative Hossam Taleb Yaacoub on a range of charges involving his

surveillance activities of Israeli tourist targets," said State Department

spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. "Today's verdict underscores the need for our

European allies - and other governments around the world - to crack down on

this deadly group and to send a strong message that Hezbollah can no longer

operate with impunity, at home or abroad."

 

Writing on February 6 for the Washington Institute, Matt Levitt, taking into

account the EU position and Hizballah's support of the Syrian regime, came

to the following conclusion:

 

"The 'Party of God' has turned its 'weapons of resistance' not on Israel,

but on fellow Muslims. This, more so than the UN indictment of four of its

members for the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, and more so

than the exposure of Hizballah operations in places like Azerbaijan, Cyprus,

Bulgaria, Thailand, and Turkey, is what now threatens Hizballah's standing

as a Lebanese political party and social movement."

 

Paul Alster is an Israel-based journalist who blogs at paulalster.com and

can be followed on Twitter @paul_alster

 

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