Australians fighting in Syria: what is the threat at home?

Australians fighting in Syria: what is the threat at home?

https://theconversation.com/australians-fighting-in-syria-what-is-the-threat-at-home-13492

 

 

The Syrian insurgent group Jabhat al-Nusra's recent pledge of allegiance to

al-Qaeda, alongside reports of Australians fighting in the insurgency,

highlights a security threat to Australia.

 

According to ASIO director-general David Irvine, there are hundreds of young

Australians fighting in Syria, with possibly 100 active with Jabhat

al-Nusra.

Syrian rebellion and Jabhat al-Nusra

 

When Syrian president Bashar al-Assad brutally suppressed peaceful protests

in early 2011, it sparked an insurgency that continues today. The conflict

has killed tens of thousands of people, and international actors have moved

in to exploit the situation, including al-Qaeda.

 

The bulk of the Syrian rebellion operates under the umbrella of the Free

Syrian Army (FSA), but several jihadist groups, loosely unified as the

Syrian Islamic Forces (SIF), also play a prominent role. One of these

jihadist groups, Jabhat al-Nusra, has drawn attention for its explicit

rejection of democracy and close al-Qaeda links, leading to its designation

as a terrorist organisation by the US state department.

 

Any doubts about Jabhat al-Nusra's links with al-Qaeda can be dispelled by

recent announcements. On April 7, al-Qaeda released a video statement,

calling for unification to achieve an "Islamic state" in Syria. On April 9,

the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI, the current name of al-Qaeda in Iraq)

released a pre-planned audio message, declaring that Jabhat al-Nusra was a

mere extension of the ISI, and that they were unifying under the new name of

the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria.

 

On April 10, Jabhat al-Nusra released an audio message disputing that it was

solely an extension of the ISI and rejecting the new name. However, in the

statement Jabhat al-Nusra confirmed its close cooperation with the ISI and

explicitly pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda's current leader Ayman

al-Zawahiri, based in Pakistan.

 

This announcement will worsen the tragic situation for Syrians caught in the

middle, and further complicate the Obama administration's efforts to support

the anti-Assad insurgency.

 

The announcement will also heighten concerns that the Syrian conflict is

providing a new pathway for Westerners to join al-Qaeda. A recent study by

the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), based on

450 sources including Western and Arabic media and online jihadist forums,

estimates that 135-590 Europeans have joined the insurgency.

Estimates for Australian fighters

 

At the time the ICSR's European estimates were published, April 2, the

study's author Aaron Zelin provided the following estimate for Australia:

18-123 fighters.

 

If we use the ICSR's minimum figures, there are fewer fighters in Syria from

Australia than from Britain, France and Ireland, but more than from other

European countries. If we use their maximum figures, only Britain has more

of its citizens fighting in Syria.

 

Most of these Australians are believed to be Lebanese dual citizens, as both

sides of the conflict have recruited fighters from Lebanon, Syria's fragile

neighbour. The jihadists often recruit from and through the Northern

Lebanese city of Tripoli, which is itself experiencing increasing violence

since the Syria conflict broke out.

 

The ICSR's estimate has been superseded by the more recent figure of 200

Australians involved. This new figure cannot currently be verified, and

should be treated cautiously until more information comes out. The estimate

is higher than the ICSR's maximum estimates for any European country, and

one third of their maximum estimate for Europe as a whole. This seems

doubtful, particularly as Australia usually has far lower rates of jihadist

activity than many European countries.

 

Open-source research by myself and my colleague Shandon Harris-Hogan has

found 17 cases of Australians allegedly involved in jihadist activity in

Lebanon between 2000 and 2012. If the estimate of 200 Australians involved

in jihadism in the Syria-Lebanon region since the outbreak of the Syria

conflict is accurate, it represents an unprecedented escalation.

The risk to Australia

 

Regardless of which figures turn out to be accurate, there has been

substantial Australian involvement in the Syrian insurgency, including at

least four reported deaths so far: on August 2012, October 2012, November

2012 and January 2013.

 

The Australian Federal Police have been openly concerned about people

joining the insurgency and released an official statement warning that it is

illegal. The Attorney-General's Department has similarly released a fact

sheet, warning of the relevant laws and recommending non-violent methods of

assisting Syrians.

 

The prominent Syrian diaspora in Australia have held public protests against

Assad's reign and the civil war. AAP/Lauren Farrow

 

There have already been cases of violence from the Syria conflict spilling

over into Australia, and al-Qaeda's increasing role heightens this threat.

 

This does not mean any Australian connection to the conflict should be cause

for alarm. Many Australians are travelling to Syria without taking part in

the conflict. Moreover, many may be fighting for the non-jihadist insurgent

groups, and many fighting for the jihadist groups may have no intention of

engaging in violence outside of the Syrian conflict zone.

 

However, any fighting with Jabhat al-Nusra, now openly loyal to al-Qaeda,

could pose a serious security risk in Australia. Al-Qaeda's increasingly

prominent role increases the likelihood that the conflict will provide

opportunities for aspiring Australian jihadists to gain experience, contacts

and deadly skills. Australia's four major jihadist terror plots have all

included people who had training or fighting experience with overseas

jihadist groups, or ongoing communication with such groups.

 

Research by Norwegian academic Thomas Hegghammer found that one in nine

Westerners who trained or fought in an overseas jihadist insurgency ended up

becoming involved in terrorist plots against the West. If this trend holds

true in the future, it suggests that most Australians fighting in Syria will

not become a security risk, but some could become highly dangerous.

 

The ICSR study stated that: "European security services are well advised to

monitor the situation closely and adopt an intelligence led, highly

discriminate approach towards dealing with returning fighters". A similarly

pro-active but cautious approach is appropriate for Australia.

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