Syria becoming new cradle for foreign extremists, research warns
Syria is on course to become a more fruitful breeding ground for jihadist
fighters than Afghanistan or Iraq, according to new research which found
that up to 5,500 foreigners have joined the civil war in less than two
years.
Syria becoming new cradle for foreign extremists, research warns
Researchers identified eight referring to militants of European origin, like
British-raised Ibrahim al-Mazwagi
By Alex Spillius
6:47PM BST 03 Apr 2013
Most of those who have travelled from overseas to fight Bashar al-Assad's
regime are from elsewhere in the Middle East, but between seven and 11
percent are from Europe, meaning hundreds are currently in Syria.
Taking information from "martyrdom notices" on jihadist websites and
hundreds of press reports over the course of a year, researchers from King's
College found that the biggest number came from Britain, with between 28 and
134 fighters.
Ireland however produced the highest number per capita, with 26, thanks to a
group of men of Libyan origin who also fought Muammar al-Gaddafi's regime.
Out of 249 foreign martyrdom notices, researchers identified eight referring
to militants of European origin, including Ibrahim al-Mazwagi, a
British-raised Libyan from north London who studied at the Hertfordshire
University. Pictures on his Facebook page show him the 21-year-old in the
team kit of the university American football team, the Hertfordshire
Hurricanes.
Past experience suggested that fighters returning to Europe from Syria would
pose a threat at home, though only a small minority would become involved in
terrorism.
"European security services are well advised to monitor the situation
closely and adopt an intelligence led, highly discriminate approach towards
dealing with returning fighters," said a briefing paper by Aaron Zelin for
the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King's.
Prof Peter Neumann, director of the centre, said: "People who return are
well trained and more dangerous. But it should be remembered not all of them
are fighting with al-Qaeda type groups obsessed with attacking America or
other Western targets."
In the first attempt to quantify foreign participation in the conflict, the
King's researchers estimated that between 2,000 and 5,500 foreigners have
joined rebel forces battling Assad's army and militias, with the first
arriving in mid-2011. An estimated 70,000 people have died in the conflict.
During the 1980s, it is estimated that 10,000 to 12,000 foreigners joined
the struggle against Russian occupation in Afghanistan, spawning a
generation of extremists who later joined al-Qaeda or graduated to fight in
Bosnia and Iraq.
From 2004 to 2009 in Iraq, the number of foreign fighters is estimated at
10,000.
"The real significance is that the scale of mobilisation is really quite
rapid," said Prof Neumann.
"If the conflict goes on for years, as it could, we believe Syria could be a
new cradle for militants. If jihadists can establish safe havens and
training camps there could be a whole generation of new people coming out of
that in the same way as they did from Afghanistan."
The research will form part of a forthcoming book, The Syrian Jihad: How
Al-Qaeda Survived the Arab Spring. It is the first attempt to quantify
foreign participation in the conflict.
In supporting French military action against Islamist militants in Mali,
David Cameron described the troubled west African state as an "ungoverned
space" which posed a "large and existential terrorist threat".
That emphasis was wrong, argued Prof Neumann.
"The real story is Syria because people aren't going to the Sahara. If you
put yourself in the shoes of a jihadi, Syria is a better destination. It is
in the heart of the Arab world, the enemy is better, you don't have to fight
in the heat of the Sahara," he said.
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