European Foreign Fighters in Syria

 

ICSR Insight: European Foreign Fighters in Syria

http://icsr.info/2013/04/icsr-insight-european-foreign-fighters-in-syria-2/

 

By ICSR in ICSR's News, Insights . 02/04/2013 .

 

By Aaron Y. Zelin

 

In recent weeks there has been much alarm about European Muslims joining the

Syrian rebels. A report in the UK's Independent claimed that more than 100

Britons have gone to Syria; Le Figaro gives an estimate of 50-80 people from

France; Der Spiegel talks about "dozens" of Germans; and Jyllands-Posten

mentions 45 Danes. The Netherlands even raised its terrorism threat level to

"substantial" based on worries that - of the 100 or so individuals who are

believed to have travelled to Syria - some may return to Holland and become

involved in terrorist attacks.

 

This ICSR Insight provides a first full empirical assessment of how many

Europeans have joined the rebels in Syria. It shows that the extent to which

the Syrian conflict has mobilised Muslims across the world is significant:

between 140 and 600 Europeans have gone to Syria since early 2011,

representing 7-11 per cent of the foreign fighter total. European security

services are well advised to adopt an intelligence led, highly discriminate

approach towards dealing with returning fighters.

 

How Many Have Joined Up?

 

Our estimate is based on more than 450 sources in the Western and Arab media

as well as the martyrdom notices that have been posted in jihadist online

forums. As with previous conflicts, the picture is far from complete and

will probably remain so for years to come. There is no "true census" of

foreign fighters, and publicly available sources are inevitably incomplete.

 

As a result, the figures range considerably. The numbers used on the lower

end are conservative estimates/fully confirmed individuals, while the ones

at the higher end include generalized (yet unverified) estimates provided by

government and media sources.

 

The data has been analysed in three different ways:  (1) overall numbers in

total or country-by-country, including those that are present, have been

killed and/or arrested, or returned home; (2) the current presence of

foreign fighters (March 2013); and (3) numbers confirmed killed when

fighting with jihadist groups.

 

        (1)  Overall

 

Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria in early 2011, we estimate that

around 2,000-5,500 foreign fighters have gone to Syria to fight with

opposition forces. Based on this total, the European share of this total

represents 135-590 individuals, or 7-11 per cent of the foreign fighter

total.

 

On a country-by-country basis, the figures are as follows:

 

    Albania: 1

    Austria: 1

    Belgium: 14-85

    Britain: 28-134

    Bulgaria: 1

    Denmark: 3-78

    Finland: 13

    France: 30-92

    Germany: 3-40

    Ireland: 26

    Kosovo: 1

    Netherlands: 5-107

    Spain: 6

    Sweden: 5

 

    

 

  (2)  Current Presence

 

Based on the conflict totals, we estimate that 70-441 Europeans are still

currently present in Syria. This suggests that most of the Europeans who

have travelled to Syria are still on the battlefield.

 

Country-by-country, the figures are:

 

    Belgium: 4-75

    Britain: 17-77

    Denmark: 3-48

    Finland: 12

    France: 9-59

    Germany: 1-37

    Ireland: 15-25

    Netherlands: 4-104

    Spain: 1

    Sweden: 3

 

It should be noted that some of the sources may be dated, which means that

the actual figures could be lower.

 

       (3)  Jihadist "Martyrs"

 

The rebel forces in Syria can be divided into three groups: independent

local units; those aligned with the Free Syrian Army (FSA); and so-called

jihadists whose ideology is linked to that of al Qaeda. Deaths in the third

category - the jihadists - can be established via so-called martyrdom

notices in al Qaeda-authenticated online forums.

 

Out of 249 foreign martyrdom notices, we have identified 8 (about 3 per cent

of the total) whose country of origin is European. They include one from

each of the following countries:

 

    Albania

    Britain

    Bulgaria

    Denmark

    France

    Kosovo

    Spain

    Sweden

 

The actual figures could be higher because of missed notices, or unreported

deaths.

 

How "Foreign" is the Syrian Conflict?

 

The Syrian government has - at various times and for different reasons -

claimed that many fighters that are involved in the current conflict are

foreigners. Our numbers do not support this assertion.

 

Even when juxtaposing the most liberal estimate for the number of foreign

fighters over the course of the entire conflict  (5,500) with the most

conservative estimate for the current size of rebel forces (60,000),

foreigners would represent less than 10 per cent. The actual figure is

likely to be lower.

 

That said, the foreign fighters' impact and military value may be

disproportionate when compared to locally recruited forces, given that

foreigners are more likely to have been involved in conflicts like Libya and

Iraq and, therefore, bring experience and skills that the locals don't have.

 

Motivations

 

Many news outlets and analysts frame all foreign fighters as terrorists or

al Qaeda-aligned. The reality is more complex. As mentioned above, not all

rebel forces in Syria are jihadist in orientation, nor are all the jihadist

groups linked to al Qaeda. Furthermore, not everyone who has joined a

jihadist group has been motivated by a fully formed jihadist worldview.

 

The most commonly cited reasons for joining rebel forces are the horrific

images of the conflict, stories about atrocities committed by government

forces, and the perceived lack of support from Western and Arab countries.

In many cases, these individuals fully adopt the jihadist doctrine and

ideology only when they are on the ground and in contact with hardened

fighters.

 

Overall Assessment

 

It is important to be nuanced when discussing the foreign fighter phenomenon

in Syria: not everyone who has joined the Syrian rebels is al Qaeda, and

only a small number may ever become involved in terrorism after returning to

Europe.

 

That said, it would be wrong to conclude that individuals who have trained

and fought in Syria pose no potential threat. Numerous studies show that

individuals with foreign training and/or fighting experience have featured

prominently in European based terrorist plots. Furthermore, according to a

recently published study by the Norwegian academic Thomas Hegghammer,

terrorists with foreign experience are far more lethal, dangerous and

sophisticated than purely domestic cells.

 

The extent to which the Syrian conflict has mobilised Muslims across the

world is significant and may be compared to the conflicts in Iraq in the

2000s, Bosnia in the 1990s, and Afghanistan in the 1980s. Based on the sheer

scale of recruitment that is currently taking place, European security

services are well advised to monitor the situation closely and adopt an

intelligence led, highly discriminate approach towards dealing with

returning fighters.

 

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