Assad might yet win in Syria thanks to Iran's Revolutionary Guards
By Con Coughlin World Last updated: May 30th, 2013
In recent weeks there has been a noticeable swing of the pendulum in Syria's bloody civil war in favour of forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.
Only a few months ago many observers were predicting Assad's impending downfall, especially after his regime was hit by a succession of well-targeted suicide bombs that killed a number of prominent officials, including the country's defence minister. In both Washington and London, officials briefed that it was only a matter of time before Assad fled into exile and a new government was established in Damascus. Well, they're certainly not saying that now.
Au contraire, listen carefully to the recent briefings on Syria and you detect a note of desperation entering into the equation, with a growing awareness that Assad and his henchmen are not about to run up the white flag after all.
Personally, I always thought there was an element of wishful thinking among those who gleefully predicted Assad's imminent demise. Like most right-thinking people, I would love to see the back of the Assad clan and their murderous deeds. But, having ruled Syria with a rod of iron for five decades, you could hardly call them a soft touch. No matter how much pressure they were under, the Assads and the rest of the Alawite clan were always going to fight to the bitter end.
The other factor that weighs greatly in Assad's favour in his bid for survival is the support he is receiving from Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Much is being made of the recent shipment of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft batteries to Syria to protect the regime from possible Nato air strikes.
But the real game-changer on the ground has been the training and equipment provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who have helped to train thousands of Syrians to fight on the regime's behalf.
As I revealed last September, an estimated 150 Revolutionary Guards were sent to Syria by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after Iran decided it could not let its most important regional ally succumb to the rebel forces which, backed by al-Qaeda sympathisers, were at that time threatening to overrun the regime.
Now the Iranians' efforts are starting to pay dividends, and the latest military assessments suggest that the thousands of Syrian fighters who have undergone training at the hands of the Revolutionary Guards are now having a profound effect on the course of the fighting.
As I reported earlier this week, these troops, having recently graduated from secret training camps staffed by 150 Iranian military advisers, are now taking a lead role in attacking the rebels.
The Assad regime is also receiving support from the Iranian-controlled Hizbollah militia based in southern Lebanon, particularly in the current battle for the town of Qusayr. As a result pro-Assad forces have notched up a number of recent successes, which include driving the rebels from the previously held positions on the outskirts of Damascus and Aleppo.
As one senior military official has commented, "Iran's contribution to the conflict could ultimately be a game-changer for the Assad regime".
It is for this reason that there is a sudden urgency about attempts in Washington and London to arms the rebels, with the British government lobbying the EU to relax its arms embargo on Syria. But with the opposition forces being infiltrated by Islamist militant groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, which has close ties with al-Qaeda, the West has the unenviable task of making sure the arms get to the right kind of rebels, and not those who want to establish and Islamic state.
And the longer the West continues with its dithering, the stronger Assad's survival prospects become.
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