Monday, June 3, 2013

Libya becomes "the new Mali" as Islamists shift in Sahara

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/sahara-islamists-idUSL5N0E92DL20130531



INSIGHT-Libya becomes "the new Mali" as Islamists shift in Sahara

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Fri May 31, 2013 6:57am EDT

* Niger says attacks on base, mine launched from  Libya

* After Mali mission,  France scrambles troops to help Niger

* Weak armies, poor regional cooperation to keep West involved

By David Lewis

BAMAKO, May 31 (Reuters) - Suicide attacks on a French-run mine and a
military base in northern Niger have shown how an Islamist threat is
spreading across the weak nations of the Sahara, meaning
France may be tied down there for years to come.

Regional rivalries are aggravating the problem for Paris and its Western
allies, with a lack of cooperation between Saharan countries helping
militants to melt away when they come under pressure and regroup in quieter
parts of the vast desert.

Security officials say lawless southern Libya has become the
latest haven for al Qaeda-linked fighters after French-led forces drove them
from strongholds in northern Mali this year, killing hundreds.

"The south of Libya is what the north of Mali was like before," said a
senior adviser to Mali's interim President Diouncounda Traore, asking not to
be named.

Niger has said last week's suicide raids, which killed 25 people at the army
base and desert uranium mine run by France's Areva, were launched from
Libya. Amid growing tensions between the two countries, Libya has denied
this.

Chad, which played a leading role in the Mali campaign, said a man was shot
dead in an attack on its consulate in the Libyan desert town of Sabha at the
weekend.

Smugglers have long used Libya's poorly patrolled south - a crossroads of
routes to Chad, Niger and Algeria - for trafficking drugs, contraband
cigarettes and people to Europe.

But the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 flooded the Sahara with
pillaged weapons and ammunition. Tuareg separatists used them to seize power
in northern Mali, only to be ousted by even better-armed Islamists who set
up training camps and imposed harsh Islamic law until the French forces
arrived.

The Islamists have also exploited Libya's weakness. Veteran al Qaeda
commander Moktar Belmokhtar bought weapons there after Gaddafi's fall and
his fighters passed through southern Libya to carry out a mass
hostage-taking at an Algerian gas plant in January, in which 37 foreigners
died.

A spokesman for the MUJWA, an al Qaeda-linked group which controlled parts
of Mali last year, told Mauritania's al Akhbar news site that the Niger
attack was not prepared in southern Libya. But Belmokhtar's group said it
also took part.

With no effective national army, Libya relies on local brigades to police
its southern border region where at least 100 people died in ethnic violence
last year. Tripoli's failure to restore security there may be encouraging
permanent Islamist camps and weapons stores, security officials say.

France, which relies on neighbouring Niger for one fifth of the uranium
powering its nuclear reactors, has urged regional powers to cooperate to
tackle the threat from Libya.

"We're extremely concerned that what's happening in southern Libya could
replicate what happened in Mali," a French diplomatic source said, adding
that the defence minister had raised the issue on a recent visit to
Washington and London. "Dealing with that problem needs to be fast-tracked."

Paris is keen to cut its troop numbers in the region. But, amid persistent
bickering and mistrust among regional powers, President Francois Hollande
admitted last week that French forces may have be used elsewhere in the
Sahel.

Alarmed European governments also approved a 110-man mission this week to
improve border security by training Libyan police and security forces. But
Paris feels this is being deployed too slowly, given the urgency of the
situation.

"As much as the West may wish to leave the problem to Africans, it cannot,"
said Vicki Huddleston, a former U.S. ambassador to Mali. "Islamists will
continue to fight until defeated by the region working together and
supported by Western governments."

LACK OF COOPERATION

Borders often have little meaning in a desert where militants can blend in
with nomads, and hunting Islamists requires states riven by mutual suspicion
to work together.

Algeria, the Sahara's main military power, has long bristled at the idea of
outside intervention in the region, particularly one led by its former
colonial ruler, France.

It allowed French war planes operating in Mali to fly over its territory.
But the Malian official said Algeria had to be more active, whether by
arresting militants or preventing the flow of fuel that allows them to cover
vast desert distances - the northern Mali town of Gao lies about 1,500 km
(930 miles) from the border of southern Libya.

"Algeria's cooperation is essential but they are not on the frontline," he
said.

Mauritania also needed to do more because of its strategic location on the
western edge of the Sahara, the high number of its citizens who are senior
militants, and its experience in tackling Islamists at home, he said.

U.S. officials said efforts to tackle the spreading influence of al Qaeda's
Sahara branch had been beset by long-standing rivalries, notably between
Morocco and Algeria, and a lack of trust and communication between regional
capitals.

Plans to set up a Saharan anti-terrorist command centre in southern Algeria
never materialised. A low point, officials in Mali's interim government say,
was reached in 2011 when senior figures in the previous administration
leaked the positions of Mauritanian troops attacking al Qaeda bases in Mali.

Relations between Mali and Mauritania had already soured in 2010 when Bamako
released a Mauritanian al Qaeda commander in return for a kidnapped hostage,
prompting Nouakchott to recall its ambassador.

The changing face of Islamist militancy creates particular problems for
governments. For years Al Qaeda's North African wing AQIM relied largely on
Algerians but they were joined last year by gunmen from across northern and
parts of West Africa.

The MUJWA group includes more black Africans better able to drift unnoticed
between West African nations since France's onslaught. "They have deployed
to other theatres," said Soumeylou BouBeye Maiga, a former Malian foreign
minister and security chief. "They will take on France elsewhere as there is
a concentration of forces here."

Niger's long border with Mali, tough line on tackling the militants and role
as a supplier of uranium to France have long made it a target. U.S. troops
are training the army and Niamey has stepped up security in the north, where
French Special Forces went this year to protect mines. Four French mine
workers seized in Arlit in 2010 are still being held.

U.N. conflict expert Ismael Diallo said France, which had originally ruled
out using ground troops in Mali, was gradually being dragged deeper into
policing the region.

"France has no choice," said Diallo, a former senior official in Burkina
Faso. "Regional cooperation will not improve soon enough and to a credible
level to deter the armed groups."

"WE ARE WATCHING"

In Mali, drone surveillance and counter-terrorism teams on the ground have
done much to stifle the militants. Suicide attacks around the northern towns
of Gao and Menaka this month claimed no victims apart from the bombers
themselves.

According to French officials, about 600 Islamists have been killed in
"Operation Serval", named after a desert wildcat.

About 200 tonnes of ammunition and dozens of vehicles were seized in
operations that scoured desert and mountain bases, disrupting arms and fuel
dumps that the Islamists prepared during their nine-month occupation of
northern Mali.

"They don't seem to have the ability to coordinate attacks in Mali anymore,"
said a French officer in Mali. "We assume that they will try to regroup but
it will take time for them and it is risky as they know we are watching."

French operations have been backed by a British spy plane and U.S. drones
operating from Niger alongside an established monitoring base in Burkina
Faso.

But Islamists who once travelled in large convoys have adapted and are
keeping a low profile. "At any given time, they could be anywhere," said a
U.S. official. "People go where the fight is."


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